Trading The French Election


Very occasionally (more so now than before), the markets provide opportunities where the reward to risk is heavily skewed because the market has mispriced an asset class. We saw this in Brexit and in the US elections. We now have another opportunity in the French elections.

I have a newsletter that deals exclusively with these situations. But, for this issue, I am making it available to you. Note the video is intended for educational purposes – to show you the BarroMetrics methodology. It is not financial advice and any action you take, you do so at your own risk,

The video does not address position size. Of course, this is something you need to do. For those familiar with my work, the Turtle Formula does NOT apply in these situations.

Normally in these situations, the only stop is a qualitative one e.g. see my blog comments for Brexit. In this case, I am not taking a position until after the polls close and the price action reflects the polling trend – I want to see some downside momentum to initiate a position.The strategy allows me to place a stop.

Note that when the polls close, 19:00 (France), [1:00 am Monday HK], the FX markets will be closed. Exit polls are expected at 20:00 (France) [2:00 am HK Monday]. Some news sources are saying that leaks will mean we’ll know the results by 6:00 (am HK). The official result is expected at 11:00 am HK.

 


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